“…we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South-West and North-Central states while retaining large majorities in the South-South and South-East,” the report added.
Politics
2023: Why Tinubu may win over Atiku and Peter Obi –Fitch
According to Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research, Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress, may win the 2023 presidential election over Atiku and Peter Obi.
In its report, the Fitch Ratings subsidiary said the APC candidate had a better chance of winning, but that Nigeria might experience political unrest as a result of Tinubu’s victory.
It warns that if Tinubu is elected, there will be more protests and social unrest in the country. According to it, a victory for the APC candidate will likely elicit feelings of marginalization among Christians, while supporters of his opponents may take to the streets to question the fairness of the election process.
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According to The Punch, the agency also stated that recent polls, which only polled a small percentage of Nigerians, overstated support for Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi.
It said, “Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress. Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
“At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election. Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress) and Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party) were mostly based on responses gathered online.
“Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed toward urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.”
Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority north, according to the report, will make it difficult for him to win next year’s election. The global rating company also said it did not expect significant policy changes under a Tinubu presidency, especially regarding removing fuel subsidies.
It added, “While Tinubu has stated that he would phase out Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy, we are skeptical this will happen in the short term. There appears to be limited appetite within the APC to remove the subsidy, and with inflation remaining elevated in 2023 – due to high food prices – the cancellation of the subsidy would negatively affect the new president’s popularity. Indeed, the PDP tried to remove the subsidy in 2012 but had to back down after large-scale protests.
“In addition, we believe that Tinubu’s aim to raise oil production is unfeasible in the short term. Crude production has declined significantly to 1.1mn barrels per day in September – a multidecade low – due to rising oil theft and previous underinvestment. Given the country’s weak fiscal position, we believe that there will be limited room for more security and social spending to combat oil theft and attract more investment.”
The agency also stated that if public concerns about Tinubu’s health persisted, Tinubu’s chances of winning would be reduced.
According to the report on Atiku, votes for the opposition PDP may split at the expense of its standard bearer. This, it said, would be due to Obi’s popularity as a viable third-party candidate after the APC and the PDP.